Monday, March 31, 2014

General Conference: What Are The Odds 2.0

A couple of years ago, in what became one of our more popular posts, I thought it would be fun to handicap LDS General Conference for the ludomaniacs who comprise a surprisingly high percentage of our readership. Of course, chronic gambling is no laughing matter but Conference...well, if you're going to stay awake for all 8-10 hours a few yucks and a few bucks might not hurt. This year we included predictions from (in no particular order) all of our contributors: Allan, Brett, Brooke, and your humble editor, Casey. Enjoy.

(As with last time, if you're unfamiliar with betting odds, think of it as potential dollars earned per dollar bet. So, 10-1 means every dollar bet earns ten if you win. Smaller ratios mean better odds, and 1-1 is Even or no odds, i.e. nobody would ever bet against it. Over/Under refers to whether you'd bet a result is greater or less than the number given) 


Fun for the whole family!

What are the Odds against...

- First session of conference conducted by President Eyring 2-1
- First session of conference conducted by President Uchtdorf  2-1
- First session of conference conducted by Ira Glass 100-1
- First session of conference conducted by Dick Clark 5000-1

- New temple announced in the United States. 2-1
- New temple announced in Russia. 25-1
- New temple announced in Ukraine Russia...err...Crimea 200-1
- New temple announced in Vatican City 1500-1

- Alliance with Community of Christ announced 2000-1
- Alliance Catholicism announced 500-1
- Alliance with Southern Baptist Convention announced 300-1

- Someone you've heard of called to the Quorum of the Seventy 20-1
- John Dehlin called to the Quorum of the Seventy 500-1
- Joanna Brooks called to the Quorum of the Seventy 1000-1
- Tom Phillips called to the Quorum of the Seventy 100000-1

- New additions to the Doctrine and Covenants proposed 30-1
- Over/under on talks emphasizing the absolute necessity of modern revelation 3.5
- Minor policy changes announced 3-1
- Over/under on Facebook friends hailing minor policy changes as revelation 8.5

- First Presidency encourages use of the hashtag #ldsconf 20-1
- First Presidency announces the addition of free WiFi in the Conference Center to encourage the use of the hashtag #ldsconf 100-1
- First Presidency live tweets from the stand using the hashtag #ldsconf 250-1
- Expert Textperts live tweets conference using the hashtag #ldsconf Even
- You should follow @ExpertTextperts on Twitter

- Family Proclamation referred to as "doctrine" or "revelation" 7-1
- Family Proclamation being referred to thusly sparks heated debate from bloggers live blogging and tweeting on technical definitions of "doctrine" and "revelation" Even
- Debates change any participants' minds 100-1

- Prosperity gospel openly taught 20-1
- Prosperity gospel openly hinted at 5-1
- Prosperity gospel openly condemned 200-1

- A member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speaks on the role of women in the Church 3-1
- A member of the Relief Society General Presidency speaks on the role of women in the Church Even
- ...while wearing pants 75-1

- President Monson reveals that the ships of Hagoth did not sail west to the Pacific Islands, but east to South Africa. Local leaders are instructed to discourage use of the word "Aloha" in sacrament meetings; however, the appropriateness of greetings in Zulu should be determined on a stake by stake basis. 800-1
- Based on Hagoth revelation, the Church's Public Relations Department releases a statement explaining that we do not know the complex reasons why there was never a priesthood and temple ban for Pacific Islanders. 600-1
- Over/under on Facebook friends hailing Pacific Islander priesthood statement as revelation 1.5

- A conference talk is given in a language other than English. 100-1
- That language is Spanish 3-2
- That language is German 5-1
- That language is Esperanto 500-1

- President Monson mentions a widow. 4-1
- An apostle praises President Monson's work with widows. 2-1
- An apostle praises President Monson's work restoring classic muscle cars 150-1

-A Seventy cites Brigham Young calling on the saints to help starving and freezing pioneers trapped in Martin's Cove as a metaphor for taking spiritual nourishment to people around us. 8-1
- A Seventy cites Brigham Young calling on the saints to help starving and freezing pioneers trapped in Martin's Cove as a metaphor for building economic and material infrastructures in developing nations to assist freezing and starving people today 500-1
- An apostle warns of the spiritual dangers that comes with an excess of leisure time, technology/social media, and economic prosperity. 3-1
-...citing Minecraft as an example 20-1
- An apostle warns of the spiritual dangers that come from neglecting environmental stewardship 10-1

- Women admitted to Priesthood session 100-1
- Over/under on male Facebook friends making the Exact. Same. Joke. about men wanting to give birth: 3.5
- Ordain Women obliquely referenced in a talk 3-1
- Ordain Women directly mentioned in a talk 10-1
- Ordain Women directly condemned in a talk 25-1
- Ordain Women directly condemned in a talk (as perceived by Millennial Star contributors) Even

- Great male priesthood holders honored 2-1
- Female apostle Junia or prophetess Deborah honored 50-1
- Scriptural appeals to historically all-male priesthood invoked 3-1
- Scriptural appeals to historically all-male temple practices invoked 20-1

- Jeffrey R. Holland inspires conservative and liberal members alike in a powerful talk Even
- Jeffrey R. Holland ends his inspiring talk with a mic drop 20-1
- Robert D. Hales inspires conservative and liberal members alike in a powerful talk 9-1
- Someone reading this is offended that we've implied Robert. D. Hales can be a little dull 10-9
- But come on, deep down you know it's kinda true, right? Even

Got predictions of your own? Leave them in the comments! Want to chastise our irreverence? Link to us on Facebook and express your disapproval to all your friends. Most of all: Happy Conference.

1 comment:

  1. Okay, these are *hilarious*! I'm only sorry I'm so late in getting around to saying this.

    ReplyDelete

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