Friday, September 21, 2012

General Conference: What are the Odds?

LDS General Conference is just a few short weeks away, and for those of you involved in the flourishing Mormon gambling community (that's a thing, right?) I thought I'd get the jump an all the other oddsmakers by presenting my official General Conference Odds, October 2012 Edition. Whether you're taking a trip to Wendover (be sure your hotel has BYU TV!) or working through the Elders Quorum bookie, this will give you the advantage over your lesser-prepared peers.

(In case you're somehow unfamiliar with betting odds, think of it as dollars earned per dollar bet. So, 10-1 means every dollar bet earns ten if you win. Smaller ratios mean better odds, and 1-1 is Even or no odds, i.e. nobody would ever bet against it)

Mormon Tabernacle Choir songs

Praise to the Lord, The Almighty 3-1
Praise to the Man 3-1
Come Thou Fount of Every Blessing 5-1
     (Odds that several choir members will cry if sung) Even
You Can Make a Pathway Bright 7-1
Sons of Michael, He Approaches 30-1
God Save the King 200-1
Detroit Rock City 500-1


"When I was a boy in rural Idaho..." 2-1
"When I was a boy in Harlem..." 500-1
"When I was a boy in East Germany..." 10-9
"When President Eyering called and asked me to speak in conference..." 50-1
"This is probably the largest priesthood gathering in history." 3-2
"This probably would have been the largest priesthood gathering in history if more of us had done our home teaching." 100-1
"... in the sacred and holy name of our beloved Lord and Savior, even the Master, our Redeemer, the Lord Jehovah, even Christ Jesus, Amen." 3-1
"Religious freedom is under attack." 10-9
"Our missionaries are in more countries than ever." 3-2
"Our beloved heavenly Father" Even
"Our beloved heavenly parents" 7-3
"Our beloved heavenly Mother" 500-1
"The world is getting worse..." Even
"...but television dramas are just getting better. Between Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and Homeland..." 200-1


Reintroduction of polygamy 1000-1
Introduction of polyandry 5000-1
Specific identification of Kolob 1500-1
New revelation on caffeine 200-1
Reiteration of existing policy on caffeine 10-1
     (Odds that any caffeine pronouncement would be delivered in an exasperated tone) Even
New Temple in the United States 7-5
New Temple in Europe 3-1
New Temple in the Peoples Republic of China 500-1
Official Endorsement of Mitt Romney 1000-1
Official Endorsement of Mitt Romney (as perceived by American Republican members) Even
Dangers of pornography 4-3
Dangers of income inequality 50-1
Dangers of fireworks 50-1
Women can be ordained to priesthood 1000-1
Men can be fathers Even
Women can be mothers Even
Priesthood is equivalent to motherhood 2-1
Women are equal to men 5-4
Man addressing women about womanhood, motherhood, or duties of women 4-3
Woman addressing men about manhood, fatherhood, or duties of fathers 50-1
New scripture 200-1
New Seventy Even
     (If watching in a group of 10 or more, odds that someone will shout "That's my mission president!") 10-1
Conference cancelled, reconvened in Missouri on short notice 500-1

Odds of a General authority...

Seen falling asleep (while watching on TV) 10-1
Seen falling asleep (while attending) 6-5
Saying something that makes you want to high-five someone 7-5
Saying something that makes you want to high-five someone (Holland excepted) 5-1
Giving someone a hug 10-9
Giving someone a high-five 50-1
Giving someone a high-five (Holland excepted) 200-1
Wearing a purple tie 7-5
Wearing a purple tie (Uchtdorf excepted) 3-1
Wearing a grey suit 8-1
Wearing a pinstriped suit 7-3
Wearing a purple suit 500-1
Wearing a purple suit (Uchtdorf excepted) 1000-1
Quoting Bruce R McConkie 10-7
Quoting Bruce Springsteen 200-1
Admitting to having repented of a minor transgression 9-7
Admitting to having repented of a major transgression 200-1
Admitting to not having repented of a major transgression 200-1
Quoting a Non-KJV Bible translation 25-1
Quoting  a general authority quoting another general authority 7-6
Referring to another GA by a colloquial first name (i.e. Tom or Russ) 7-1
Referring to another GA by a nickname (i.e. Jeffrey R. Holla!) 100-1
Making an airplane reference Even
Making an airplane reference (Uchtdorf excepted) 7-5
Making an airplane reference (Uchtdorf and speakers quoting Uchtdorf excepted) 5-1

And there you go. If you have ideas of you own, put 'em in the comments.


  1. First, I'm surprised you spelled President Eyring's last name incorrectly--he's only been in the Quorum of the Twelve/First Presidency for 17 years!

    Second, I think you need to have bets listed on what the congregational hymns are. Because I'm pretty sure they'll be "High On the Mountain Top," " We Thank Thee, O God, For a Prophet," "Now Let Us Rejoice," and "How Firm a Foundation." It'd be even easier to pick out the MoTab hymns if this were the April sessions. :)

  2. Hearing something that may be important to your salvation and exaltation 1:1

  3. Doctrine: Prosperity Gospel Even

  4. A retelling of a now-cliched "folksy" story illustrating a gospel principle: 3:1

    A gritty reboot of said story: 3000:1

    1. "As streaks of blood obscured his vision, he saw his arm dangling by its last few sinews. The spiritual crocodile slowly approached, and he knew it would only be moments before it finally snapped his neck"

    2. "The boy stared at the brine. He wanted--no, needed--to repeat the daily routine, the agrarian chores that were once his bane, but now, his one connection to reality. He pushed back the flood of memories--his father's sordid ties to drug peddlers and crimeland kingpins, his mother's heroin-addled madness, the murdered cop in the trunk of the family car--and laughed. It was an eerie, animalistic laugh, one more fit for an asylum than a barn. With a swift jerk of his arm, he pulled a cucumber from the salty water and whispered, 'How alike we are, humans and pickles.'"

    3. With no disrespect to Elder Bednar or his parents, of course.

    4. This needs to be its own blog post.

    5. Seconded! A post of gritty reboots of folksy parables.

    6. Looking forward to this post. :)

  5. Odds that Boyd K. Packer will say something politically incorrect, but doctrinally sound: Even.

    1. Where by "politically incorrect" you mean "shows that he doesn't give a flying shit about anyone unlike himself, and that he believes his god is on the same team"

  6. Odds on how many times Elder Scott will use the word, "Supernal."

    1. We need an over/under on Scott saying "supernal" vs Eyring saying "Qualify"

  7. I am still enjoying this post, even after a week. I shared it with my new member husband, who understands betting well, but had to have some of the odds explained. ;-)

    I included it on today’s “Things I am reading” post on my blog. I am so glad that I found your link on Keepa!

  8. Odds of making the switch from the Sacrament to the Holy Eucarist 100-1

  9. Odds of someone raising their hand in opposition to President Monson as prophet seer and revelator- 10,000-1

  10. Odds that the Church Statistical report and sustaining of Church leaders is the most looked forward to part of conference (Holland excepted): 3-1

  11. I'm going with 1:3 on 'Official Endorsement of Mitt Romney (as perceived by American Republican members).' You'll lose money no matter what on that one. Not to say anything against Romney, per se, just bombastic ignorance.

  12. Re-reading for the 3rd time. Laughing as I do so.