Friday, September 21, 2012

General Conference: What are the Odds?

LDS General Conference is just a few short weeks away, and for those of you involved in the flourishing Mormon gambling community (that's a thing, right?) I thought I'd get the jump an all the other oddsmakers by presenting my official General Conference Odds, October 2012 Edition. Whether you're taking a trip to Wendover (be sure your hotel has BYU TV!) or working through the Elders Quorum bookie, this will give you the advantage over your lesser-prepared peers.

(In case you're somehow unfamiliar with betting odds, think of it as dollars earned per dollar bet. So, 10-1 means every dollar bet earns ten if you win. Smaller ratios mean better odds, and 1-1 is Even or no odds, i.e. nobody would ever bet against it)

Mormon Tabernacle Choir songs

Praise to the Lord, The Almighty 3-1
Praise to the Man 3-1
Come Thou Fount of Every Blessing 5-1
     (Odds that several choir members will cry if sung) Even
You Can Make a Pathway Bright 7-1
Sons of Michael, He Approaches 30-1
God Save the King 200-1
Detroit Rock City 500-1


"When I was a boy in rural Idaho..." 2-1
"When I was a boy in Harlem..." 500-1
"When I was a boy in East Germany..." 10-9
"When President Eyering called and asked me to speak in conference..." 50-1
"This is probably the largest priesthood gathering in history." 3-2
"This probably would have been the largest priesthood gathering in history if more of us had done our home teaching." 100-1
"... in the sacred and holy name of our beloved Lord and Savior, even the Master, our Redeemer, the Lord Jehovah, even Christ Jesus, Amen." 3-1
"Religious freedom is under attack." 10-9
"Our missionaries are in more countries than ever." 3-2
"Our beloved heavenly Father" Even
"Our beloved heavenly parents" 7-3
"Our beloved heavenly Mother" 500-1
"The world is getting worse..." Even
"...but television dramas are just getting better. Between Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and Homeland..." 200-1


Reintroduction of polygamy 1000-1
Introduction of polyandry 5000-1
Specific identification of Kolob 1500-1
New revelation on caffeine 200-1
Reiteration of existing policy on caffeine 10-1
     (Odds that any caffeine pronouncement would be delivered in an exasperated tone) Even
New Temple in the United States 7-5
New Temple in Europe 3-1
New Temple in the Peoples Republic of China 500-1
Official Endorsement of Mitt Romney 1000-1
Official Endorsement of Mitt Romney (as perceived by American Republican members) Even
Dangers of pornography 4-3
Dangers of income inequality 50-1
Dangers of fireworks 50-1
Women can be ordained to priesthood 1000-1
Men can be fathers Even
Women can be mothers Even
Priesthood is equivalent to motherhood 2-1
Women are equal to men 5-4
Man addressing women about womanhood, motherhood, or duties of women 4-3
Woman addressing men about manhood, fatherhood, or duties of fathers 50-1
New scripture 200-1
New Seventy Even
     (If watching in a group of 10 or more, odds that someone will shout "That's my mission president!") 10-1
Conference cancelled, reconvened in Missouri on short notice 500-1

Odds of a General authority...

Seen falling asleep (while watching on TV) 10-1
Seen falling asleep (while attending) 6-5
Saying something that makes you want to high-five someone 7-5
Saying something that makes you want to high-five someone (Holland excepted) 5-1
Giving someone a hug 10-9
Giving someone a high-five 50-1
Giving someone a high-five (Holland excepted) 200-1
Wearing a purple tie 7-5
Wearing a purple tie (Uchtdorf excepted) 3-1
Wearing a grey suit 8-1
Wearing a pinstriped suit 7-3
Wearing a purple suit 500-1
Wearing a purple suit (Uchtdorf excepted) 1000-1
Quoting Bruce R McConkie 10-7
Quoting Bruce Springsteen 200-1
Admitting to having repented of a minor transgression 9-7
Admitting to having repented of a major transgression 200-1
Admitting to not having repented of a major transgression 200-1
Quoting a Non-KJV Bible translation 25-1
Quoting  a general authority quoting another general authority 7-6
Referring to another GA by a colloquial first name (i.e. Tom or Russ) 7-1
Referring to another GA by a nickname (i.e. Jeffrey R. Holla!) 100-1
Making an airplane reference Even
Making an airplane reference (Uchtdorf excepted) 7-5
Making an airplane reference (Uchtdorf and speakers quoting Uchtdorf excepted) 5-1

And there you go. If you have ideas of you own, put 'em in the comments.